SG
Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY25 delivered 13.8% revenue growth to $381.0M, driven by OWYN contribution (~$33.6M) and 3.8% organic growth, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.40 and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.51 .
- Results were essentially in line with Wall Street: Primary EPS modestly beat consensus ($0.51 vs $0.501*) and revenue matched ($381.0M vs $380.9M*); 8 EPS estimates and 10 revenue estimates supported consensus*.
- Guidance tightened: FY25 net sales growth narrowed to 8.5–9.5% (from 8.5–10.5%), adjusted EBITDA growth to 4–5% (from 4–6%), and OWYN net sales targeted at ~$145M midpoint; gross margin decline of ~200 bps for the year maintained .
- Key catalysts: 1) Quest salty snacks momentum and expanded placements (health & wellness wall, grocery adjacency), 2) OWYN double-digit RTD growth with distribution still below peers, 3) margin headwinds from cocoa/whey and tariffs implying weaker Q4 and a H1 FY26 margin trough before productivity/price offsets build .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Quest salty snacks retail takeaway grew 31% and is on pace to become the largest Quest platform; household penetration up 120 bps YoY to 18.3% .
- OWYN RTD shakes retail takeaway grew >20% with distribution up 18%; management sees long runway given ACV in low 60s and velocities well below peers, expecting continued wins into Q4 and fall resets .
- Strong cash generation and de-leveraging: cash $98.0M; term loan reduced to $250.0M; TTM Net Debt/Adj EBITDA 0.5x; $24M buybacks in Q3 .
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What Went Wrong
- Gross margin compressed to 36.4%, down ~350 bps YoY on cocoa/whey inflation and OWYN mix; margins expected to remain pressured by tariffs through Q4 .
- Atkins declined: net sales -12.7% and consumption -13%, driven by distribution losses and non-repeat of high-volume merchandising; double-digit declines expected to persist into FY26 amid footprint reductions .
- Q4 outlook implies a low double-digit adjusted EBITDA decline (mid-single-digit excl. 53rd week), reflecting rising inflation and tariff impacts that will take time to offset via productivity/pricing .
Financial Results
Segment net sales (Q3 FY25):
KPIs (Q3 FY25):
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Salty Snacks retail takeaway grew 31% this quarter and is on pace to become the largest platform on the Quest business.” — Geoff Tanner .
- “We expect retail takeaway trends [OWYN] to remain strong, benefiting from incremental distribution wins as well as planned merchandising activity…” — Geoff Tanner .
- “Our implied gross margin outlook for Q4 reflects an increase in realized inflation, as well as the impact of tariffs… both of these drivers are expected to continue for some time.” — Chris Bealer .
- “At approximately 10% of our net sales today… we remain confident in our ability to drive strong double-digit growth [OWYN].” — Geoff Tanner .
- “Our target as a company continues to be high 30s gross margin… we’ve materially stepped up our productivity efforts… contemplating additional pricing where it makes sense.” — Geoff Tanner .
Q&A Highlights
- Atkins footprint and trajectory: Distribution cuts at key mass/club customers will drive continued double-digit declines through FY26; core SKUs above category velocity benchmarks; strategy to replace low-velocity SKUs with higher-turn Quest/OWYN SKUs .
- OWYN cadence and FY26 framing: Q3 deceleration was anticipated (lapping big wins); expect ~mid-20% consumption growth FY26 with ACV building and innovation pipeline .
- Margin/tariff headwinds: Cocoa/whey inflation and tariffs will pressure gross margin in Q4; margin profile likely improves in H2 FY26 as productivity/pricing offsets build .
- Quest capacity/distribution: Pulling forward capacity planning for salty; expanding placements beyond the nutrition aisle (mainline salty, health & wellness wall, coolers) .
- Capital allocation: Priorities are M&A, debt paydown, then buybacks; net leverage ~0.5x; $24M buybacks in Q3 with ~$50M remaining authorization .
Estimates Context
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Actual vs consensus (Q3 FY25):
- EPS modest beat; revenue essentially in line. With FY25 guidance narrowed/lowered on EBITDA and sales, estimates may drift down for Q4 and H1 FY26 given explicit inflation/tariff headwinds and implied Q4 EBITDA decline .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quest momentum remains the growth engine; salty snacks now the largest platform with expanding off-aisle placements, supporting sustained double-digit brand growth into FY26 .
- OWYN continues to compound with ACV still below peers; distribution wins and strong velocities underpin the ~$145M FY25 target and mid-20s growth framing for FY26 .
- Margin trajectory: Expect a near-term trough (Q4 and H1 FY26) as tariffs and cocoa/whey headwinds flow through; productivity and selective pricing should progressively offset into H2 FY26 .
- Atkins remains a drag as footprint is rationalized; focus on core SKUs and GLP-1-aligned innovation should stabilize base velocities, but distribution-led declines persist through FY26 .
- Balance sheet optionality: Net debt/Adj EBITDA 0.5x, ongoing buybacks, and M&A prioritization provide strategic flexibility amidst margin headwinds .
- Near-term setup: Q4 organic net sales ~3% growth at midpoint and implied EBITDA decline suggest cautious short-term trading stance; watch fall reset outcomes and tariff clarity as narrative drivers .
- Stock reaction catalysts: 1) Evidence of tariff mitigation/productivity ramp and gross margin stabilization, 2) incremental Quest salty/club wins, 3) OWYN distribution acceleration and innovation milestones, 4) any M&A or expanded repurchase updates .
Appendix: Source Highlights
- Q3 FY25 press release (financials, guidance, brand disaggregation): .
- Q3 FY25 call (prepared remarks and Q&A details): .
- Prior quarter press releases (for sequential comparisons and prior guidance): Q2 ; Q1 .